A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
