Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
